Sunday, October 19, 2008

Big Week for News Paper Endorsements for Obama

This was a big week for newspapers giving their endorsement to the Presidential candidates. Editor and Publisher (E&P) has been tracking all the papers and keeping a tally of endorsements for each candidate. In recent days the overwhelming trend from big city newspapers in editorial endorsements has favored Barack Obama, including several newspapers that had backed George W. Bush in 2004 switching over to the Democratic candidate this year. In all the Obama-Biden ticket has a strong lead in the race for daily newspaper endorsements, leading 104 to 32, a better than 3-1 margin. And in these endorsements have been four general themes:

1) The country is a mess;
2) John McCain is a disappointment;
3) The biggest disappointment from McCain is Sarah Palin, who is a blithering idiot; &
4) Obama is the president the country needs.
The Obama campaign picked up over 50 more newspaper endorsements in the past few days, including the Detroit Free Press, Buffalo News, Cleveland's Plain Dealer, Palm Beach (Fla.) Post, New York's Daily News, Miami Herald, Philadelphia Inquirer, Portland's The Oregonian, Denver Post, Atlanta Journal-Constitution, The Salt Lake Tribune, Kansas City Star, and Chicago Sun-Times.

Two big surprises came from deep in the heart of Texas, with the Houston Chronicle and Austin American Statesman coming out for Obama today.

The Houston Chronicle endorsed a Democrat for the first time since Johnson (who was a home grown Texan) in 1964. Like many of the Conservative newspapers that have jumped ship on the Republican candidate, John McCain's selection of Sarah Palin made their decision fairly straight-forward:

Perhaps the worst mistake McCain made in his campaign for the White House was the choice of the inexperienced and inflammatory Palin as his vice-presidential running mate. Had he selected a moderate, experienced Republican lawmaker such as Texas Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison with a strong appeal to independents, the Chronicle's choice for an endorsement would have been far more difficult.
Other newspapers that switched from George W. Bush to Barack Obama included the New Haven (CT) Register, The Times-Reporter in New Philadelphia (Ohio), The Stockton (Ca.) Record, Pasadena (Ca.) Star-News, Naples (Fla.) Daily-News, and Canton (Ohio) Repository, among others. In total 25 newspapers that endorsed George W. Bush in 2004 have now given their support to Barak Obama.


Another prominent newspaper of these 25 is the Chicago Tribune, which has never endorsed a Democrat since it's inception in 1847. This newspaper has known Barack Obama for years longer than the rest of this nation, as they mentioned in their endorsement. I am posting it in full here:

However this election turns out, it will dramatically advance America's slow progress toward equality and inclusion. It took Abraham Lincoln's extraordinary courage in the Civil War to get us here. It took an epic battle to secure women the right to vote. It took the perseverance of the civil rights movement. Now we have an election in which we will choose the first African-American president . . . or the first female vice president.

In recent weeks it has been easy to lose sight of this history in the making. Americans are focused on the greatest threat to the world economic system in 80 years. They feel a personal vulnerability the likes of which they haven't experienced since Sept. 11, 2001. It's a different kind of vulnerability. Unlike Sept. 11, the economic threat hasn't forged a common bond in this nation. It has fed anger, fear and mistrust.

On Nov. 4 we're going to elect a president to lead us through a perilous time and restore in us a common sense of national purpose.

The strongest candidate to do that is Sen. Barack Obama. The Tribune is proud to
endorse him today for president of the United States. On Dec. 6, 2006, this page encouraged Obama to join the presidential campaign. We wrote that he would celebrate our common values instead of exaggerate our differences. We said he would raise the tone of the campaign. We said his intellectual depth would sharpen the policy debate. In the ensuing 22 months he has done just that.

Many Americans say they're uneasy about Obama. He's pretty new to them.

We can provide some assurance. We have known Obama since he entered politics a dozen years ago. We have watched him, worked with him, argued with him as he rose from an effective state senator to an inspiring U.S. senator to the Democratic Party's nominee for president.

We have tremendous confidence in his intellectual rigor, his moral compass and his ability to make sound, thoughtful, careful decisions. He is ready.The change that Obama talks about so much is not simply a change in this policy or that one. It is not fundamentally about lobbyists or Washington insiders. Obama envisions a change in the way we deal with one another in politics and government. His opponents may say this is empty, abstract rhetoric. In fact, it is hard to imagine how we are going to
deal with the grave domestic and foreign crises we face without an end to the savagery and a return to civility in politics.

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This endorsement makes some history for the Chicago Tribune. This is the first time
the newspaper has endorsed the Democratic Party's nominee for president.The Tribune in its earliest days took up the abolition of slavery and linked itself to a powerful force for that cause--the Republican Party. The Tribune's first great leader, Joseph Medill, was a founder of the GOP. The editorial page has been a proponent of conservative principles. It believes that government has to serve people honestly and efficiently.

With that in mind, in 1872 we endorsed Horace Greeley, who ran as an independent against the corrupt administration of Republican President Ulysses S. Grant. (Greeley was later endorsed by the Democrats.) In 1912 we endorsed Theodore Roosevelt, who ran as the Progressive Party candidate against Republican President William Howard Taft.

The Tribune's decisions then were driven by outrage at inept and corrupt business and political leaders.

We see parallels today.

The Republican Party, the party of limited government, has lost its way. The government ran a $237 billion surplus in 2000, the year before Bush took office -- and recorded a $455 billion deficit in 2008. The Republicans lost control of the U.S. House and Senate in 2006 because, as we said at the time, they gave the nation rampant spending and Capitol Hill corruption. They abandoned their principles. They paid the price.

We might have counted on John McCain to correct his party's course. We like McCain. We endorsed him in the Republican primary in Illinois. In part because of his persuasion and resolve, the U.S. stands to win an unconditional victory in Iraq.

It is, though, hard to figure John McCain these days. He argued that President Bush's tax cuts were fiscally irresponsible, but he now supports them. He promises a balanced budget by the end of his first term, but his tax cut plan would add an estimated $4.2 trillion in debt over 10 years. He has responded to the economic crisis with an angry, populist message and a misguided, $300 billion proposal to buy up bad mortgages.McCain failed in his most important executive decision. Give him credit for choosing a female running mate--but he passed up any number of supremely qualified Republican women who could have served. Having called Obama not ready to lead, McCain chose Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. His campaign has tried to stage-manage Palin's exposure to the public. But it's clear she is not prepared to step in at a moment's notice and serve as president. McCain put his campaign before his country.

Obama chose a more experienced and more thoughtful running mate--he put governing before politicking. Sen. Joe Biden doesn't bring many votes to Obama,
but he would help him from day one to lead the country.

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McCain calls Obama a typical liberal politician. Granted, it's disappointing that Obama's mix of tax cuts for most people and increases for the wealthy would create an estimated $2.9 trillion in federal debt. He has made more promises on spending than McCain has. We wish one of these candidates had given good, hard specific information on how he would bring the federal budget into line. Neither one has.

We do, though, think Obama would govern as much more of a pragmatic centrist than many people expect.

We know first-hand that Obama seeks out and listens carefully and respectfully to people who disagree with him. He builds consensus. He was most effective in the Illinois legislature when he worked with Republicans on welfare, ethics and criminal justice reform.He worked to expand the number of charter schools in Illinois--not popular with some Democratic constituencies.

He took up ethics reform in the U.S. Senate--not popular with Washington politicians.

His economic policy team is peppered with advisers who support free trade. He has been called a "University of Chicago Democrat"--a reference to the famed free-market Chicago school of economics, which puts faith in markets.

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Obama is deeply grounded in the best aspirations of this country, and we need to return to those aspirations. He has had the character and the will to achieve great things despite the obstacles that he faced as an unprivileged black man in the U.S.He has risen with his honor, grace and civility intact. He has the intelligence to understand the grave economic and national security risks that face us, to listen to good advice and make careful decisions.

When Obama said at the 2004 Democratic Convention that we weren't a nation of red states and blue states, he spoke of union the way Abraham Lincoln did.

It may have seemed audacious for Obama to start his campaign in Springfield, invoking Lincoln. We think, given the opportunity to hold this nation's most powerful
office, he will prove it wasn't so audacious after all. We are proud to add Barack Obama's name to Lincoln's in the list of people the Tribune has endorsed for president of the United States.



Here are some additional excerpts from a number of the endorsements from battleground states:


The St. Louis Post-Dispatch:

Over the past nine months, Mr. Obama, the junior senator from Illinois, has emerged as the only truly transformative candidate in the race. In the crucible that is a presidential campaign, his intellect, his temperament and equanimity under pressure consistently have been impressive. He has surrounded himself with smart, capable advisers who have helped him refine thorough, nuanced policy positions.

In a word, Mr. Obama has been presidential.Meanwhile, Mr. McCain, the senior senator from Arizona, became the incredible shrinking man. He shrank from his principled stands in favor of a humane immigration policy. He shrank from his universal condemnation of torture and his condemnation of the politics of smear.

He even shrank from his own campaign slogan, “County First,” by selecting the least qualified running mate since the Swedenborgian shipbuilder Arthur Sewall ran as William Jennings Bryan’s No. 2 in 1896.


The Denver Post:

The Denver Post's editorial board Friday endorsed Democrat Sen. Barack Obama for president.

The Post thinks Obama is better equipped to lead America back to a prosperous future. In unsteady times, it may seem obvious to gravitate toward the veteran politician, but in this campaign, it's been the newcomer who has had the steady hand.


Dayton Daily News:

Sen. McCain's campaign has been as disappointing as his move toward party orthodoxy. More than his opponent, he has run a relentless stream of commercials that have been discredited by nonpartisan fact-checkers. (Last week, all his ads were negative.)

He has articulated no vision for the country other than to suggest that it should believe in him as an individual, as a war hero of independent judgment.His selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate was stunning. She is shockingly lacking in presidential qualifications.

Some of Sen. McCain's most enthusiastic supporters have been forced to admit this. Her defenders say her resume compares well with Sen. Obama's, but it does not.

Alaska is tiny in population and atypical in its issues. And she'd been governor for only a year and a half when she was tapped. At any rate, as some interviews have shown, she's no Barack Obama.Sen. McCain presents her as a fellow "maverick." Nonsense.


Pittsburgh Post-Gazette:

Despite the recent nastiness of his campaign. Sen. McCain is essentially a good man, but he is yesterday's man. His campaign takes its core text from the "Wizard of Oz": Don't mind the man behind the curtain. That man is George Bush, the failed magician who cannot be spoken of lest the American people be reminded of what he has wrought and what party he belongs to.

To make their trick work, Mr. McCain and his running mate, Gov. Palin, trade heavily on being mavericks -- too heavily to be believed.It is true that Mr. McCain has a capricious streak that has made him a thorn in the side of his own party on various issues. Yet while he has not joined the know-nothing brigade in climate change denial, he has picked a running mate who is a diva in the drill, baby, drill chorus of fossil-fuel adulation.


Toledo Blade:
Sen. John McCain, by nature, has shown himself to be incapable of providing the American people with an optimistic vision of the future. Firmly rooted in the failed politics and policies of the past, he cannot guide us on a path he does not see.Senator Obama already has demonstrated that he is a man of the future in the way he has inspired a new generation of voters to become involved in the political process and to actively strive for a better tomorrow.

The readership of the newspapers backing Obama now stands at over 10 million vs. McCain's just under 2.5 million.

Sarah Palin on Saturday Night Live

Sarah Palin made her much anticipated appearence on Saturday Night Live, and it was funny. She did not say much, but she kept a smile even as SNL roasted her good. I have to give it up to SNL for continuing the jokes even with Governor Palin on-hand. Alec Baldwin again proves he's the best.

Watch it here:


Amy Poehler does a great rap about Palin with Sarah Palin sitting right there, again the Governor sits there and takes the jokes that were at her expense with good nature, but I was shocked she did not do much more than just sit during the skits. The moose is a great touch however.

Watch it here:

LibertyAir Blog

Obama raised record $150 million in September with 632,000 new donors

Now we know why the Obama campaign can try to compete in West Virginia, Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, and hold 30 minute shows on ABC, CBS, NBC, and Fox. The Obama campaign raised record $150 million in September. This is amazing! For the past week or so, there was a lot of speculation that the Obama campaign might have broken $100 million, which would have been a huge accomplishment. The biggest month before this was the $66 million raised in August. According to the campaign, there were 632,000 new donors, bringing the total number of people who contributed to the campaign to 3.1 million, and the average contribution is $86.

The money started pouring in during the Republican convention and has not stopped yet. Sarah Palin did a lot to help with this, she may have energized the conservative base, but she did more for the liberal left. Keep in mind, September was a trying month. John McCain surged into the lead after his convention and kept it for much of the month. That helped to invigorate the progresive grassroots.

Given the onslaught of negative, vicious attacks on Obama, he'll need this money and more. This is going to make it a bit easier to weather the smear attacks that are coming in the next two weeks.

Rachel Maddow Discussed the McCain campaign

On Friday Rachel Maddow reported on the Jeckle and Hyde nature of the McCain campaign, and their use of the Robocalls. Rachel interviewed Democratic strategist and senior advisor to John Edwards, Mudcat Saunders about the McCain campaign strategist.


LibertyAir Blog

Barack Obama's "Anti-Robocall" TV Ad

John McCain, Sarah Palin and their political allies are attacking Barack Obama with really the only thing they have, negative robocalls and direct mail. With the Republicans lack of money this year this is all they can afford. Reports are coming in from around the country that these disgusting, false robcalls are coming in. And the Obama campaign is asking you to help fight it. You can be part of getting the truth out.

If you've received an attack mailer, phone call or anything else produced by dirty politics, head over the http://FightTheSmears.com/Report and let the Obama campaign know.

Here is a commercial that the Obama campaign has put out to help fight this new smear campaign. Watch it here:

LibertyAir Blog

Barack Obama's Speech About Colin Powell

Barack Obama spoke about General Colin Powell's endorsement today, and the vision for a united America in Fayetteville NC.

This is why I support Barak Obama.

LibertyAir Blog

More from Collin Powell

After his "Meet the Press" appearance, during which he endorsed Barack Obama, Colin Powell stopped to answer the questions of reporters who were waiting outside the studio.

Powell was asked about relentless negativity of the McCain campaign, and Powell made no effort to hide his disappointment. Perhaps most importantly, General Powell noted that the constant right-wing conservatve efforts to a) falsely label Barak Obama as a Muslim; and b) make "Muslim" some kind of slur, not only undermines national unity, but also damages America's standing in the world.
"Those types of images going out on Al Jazeera are killing us around the world," said General Powell.

General Powell went on to express his disgust for Representative Michele Bachmann's (R-MN) neo-McCarthyism.

"We have got to stop this kind of nonsense," Powell said, "pull ourselves together, and remember that our great strength is in our unity and in our diversity."

"We can't judge our people and hold our elections on that kind of basis. Yes, that kind of negativity troubled me. And the constant shifting of the argument, I was troubled a couple of weeks ago when in the middle of the crisis the campaign said, 'We're going to go negative,' and they announced it. 'We're going to go negative and attack his character through Bill Ayers.' And now I guess the message this week is we're going to call him a socialist."

"Mr. Obama is now a socialist, because he dares to suggest that maybe we ought to look at the tax structure that we have. Taxes are always a redistribution of money. Most of the taxes that are redistributed go back to those who pay them, in roads and airports and hospitals and schools. And taxes are necessary for the common good. And there's nothing wrong with examining what our tax structure is or who should be paying more or who should be paying less, and for us to say that makes you a socialist is an unfortunate characterization that isn't accurate."

It was a great sound bite and terrible news for John McCain.

Watch the video here:

LibertyAir Blog

Colin Powell Endorses Barack Obama

Former Secretary of State Colin Powell announced Sunday on NBC’s Meet the Press that he will be voting for Sen. Barack Obama, citing the Democrat's "ability to inspire" and the "inclusive nature of his campaign."

"I think he is a transformational figure, he is a new generation coming onto the world stage, onto the American stage." Powell said he was concerned about what he characterized as a recent negative turn of Republican candidate Sen. John McCain's campaign, such as the campaign's attempts to tie Obama to former 1960s radical Bill Ayers.

"I think that's inappropriate. I understand what politics is about -- I know how you can go after one another, and that's good. But I think this goes too far, and I think it has made the McCain campaign look a little narrow. It's not what the American people are looking for," he said.

General Powell also stated that he was concerned about John McCain's response to the economic crisis. And that he did not believe that Sarah Palin was ready for the job of Vice President, and that the choice of her as VP raised many questions about John McCain's judgment.

He was still very complimentary of John McCain, and said he believes John McCain would be a good President, but that now the country needed more, a transformational figure and with that General Colin Powell endorsed Barack Obama for President of the United States.

Watch the video here:

LibertyAir Blog

Saturday, October 18, 2008

Report Negative Mailings and Phone Calls

Barack Obama and his campaign are not sitting idally by as John McCain and his allies lie and smear. They need the help of all of us though. If you get one of McCain's sleazy robcalls, let the Obama campaign know.

From the Obama campaign:
The McCain campaign has orchestrated a vicious “robocall” and direct mail smear
campaign against Barack.

Fight the Smears is an online resource to help correct the record. More frequently now, Fight the Smears addresses the baseless accusations from John McCain’s 100% negative campaign.

You can help fight back by reporting one or more of the smears they are spreading.

Report smear literature -- Create a digital copy

There are three ways to create a copy. Once the copy is created, upload it using the form to the right.

If you have a computer scanner, you can scan the mail piece to create a digital copy on your computer. Then upload the file using the form to the right.

Go to a nearby print shop to scan the mailing. They should be able to email you the digital versions of the mailings or put them on a CD or USB drive.

The UPS Store, FedEx, or any major office supplies store should be able to create a digital copy.

Take a picture with a digital camera.

Set your camera to its highest quality setting and take the photo in good lighting -- preferably outside in the daytime or with a flash.

Notify the campaign of "Robocall" smears

If you can create a recording of the automated phone call on your computer in .mp3 format, you can upload it directly using the form to the right.

If you have a recording of the negative phone call (on an answering machine or other device), you can report the call over the phone. Call 312-506-8685 and then replay the attack message into the receiver of the phone.

Before you play the message into the phone, be sure to clearly state your name, location and phone number so that the campaign can reach you with any questions.

Obama talks economy to crowd of 100,000 in St. Louis


Barak Obama was in St. Louis today to give a campaign speech at the Gateway Arch. MSNBC has reported that "police in St. Louis say the crowd is estimated at about 100,000. Looking at the picture below I believe they may be correct. I hope these people do more than come to listen to a speech, I hope they talk to friends and family, and convince them that this nation needs to change course, that this nation needs real leadership, and then they go out and vote. Because if they do, this nation will have the leader it needs.


Count the Lies 157


I had not gone back to this site in awhile, and boy did the number of lies that John McCain has said jump up. 157 lies have been fact checked and proven false.


A Bit of Hope

I learned a bit of good news this morning. Yesterday, I posted a video of Crazy Minnesota Rep. Michelle Bachmann's insane rant on MSNBC's Hardball.

This woman is crazy and she had said a lot of bizarre things in the past but her comments to Chris Matthews was one of the most outlandish and alarming performances I've seen this year. AmericaBlog linked to the ActBlue page of her opponent, Elwyn Tinklenberg, his total raised was under $4,000. But, across the liberal progressive blogosphere, there was a visceral reaction to Bachmann's crazy rant. This morning, Tinklenberg's ActBlue page has raised over $100,000.

Still Tinklenberg needs more of the Netroots love. Please how him some love today. And kick anti-American, McCarthyist Bachmann out of the Congress she defiles with her bigoted presence.

Countdown To Election: 17 Days

We enter the final stretch of the campaign, with Barack Obama winning because more than John McCain, or any other candidate that was in the primaries, he has been able to make the case that he can provide the change the United States need. John McCain's options are diminishing, which means he and the Republicans will only get nastier and uglier. How much lower can they go?

I'm afraid we will find out.

LibertyAir Blog

Joe Biden: We All Love This Country

Sarah Palin put her foot in her mouth the other day when she declared that she loved to visit the "pro-America" areas of the country, of which North Carolina is one. Though she offered no word as to which states or areas were "anti-America".

Joe Biden responds to Sarah Palin at a speech today. Watch here:


LibertAir Blog

How Far Has McCain Fallen

The Huffington Post is reporting that John McCain has resorted to using the same Robocall firm that helped to smear him in the 2000 primary race. I ask in all honesty, how low will John McCain go to win the Presidency?

From the Huffington Post:

In his efforts to attack Barack Obama, John McCain appears to have turned to the same political consulting firm that was responsible for spreading vicious smears about the Senator during the 2000 South Carolina GOP primary.

In recent days, the Huffington Post and other outlets have reported on the McCain-funded nationwide robocall campaign charging that Barack Obama "worked closely with" former 60s radical William Ayers. Another RNC/McCain campaign call states that Obama is a "celebrity" politician who was fundraising in Hollywood during the financial crisis.


Once John McCain railed against the practice of using robocalls, calling them "hate calls" and he complained loudly that voters were "inundated" by them. And this was not just back in 2000, no this was also this year. As recently as nine months ago, John McCain and his campaign "were decrying a series of negative robo-calls that were being made to voters before the South Carolina primary accusing him of voting to 'use unborn babies in medical research."
"The tactic - people do phone calls, and they have a political effect when there's unknown quantities about the candidate,'' [senior McCain adviser Steve] Schmidt said back then, as the bus rolled through South Carolina. "So if you look at it eight years ago, John McCain had won the New Hampshire primary, comes down here where he was nowhere nearas widely known as he his today by the people of South Carolina on the issues."

Guess times change, because now the McCain campaign is using similar calls as it seeks to discredit Mr. Obama in a series of battleground states. Tucker Bounds, a McCain campaign spokesman, defended the calls, saying, "These calls are based on hard facts." Of course the McCain campaign is never able to substantiate these "facts" and independent groups have thoroughly debunked the crap McCain is peddling.

I question again, how low will John McCain go to win the Presidency?

Friday, October 17, 2008

Breaking News: Obama Campaign Calls for Special Investigator

Tonight on Countdown with Keith Olbermann it was reported that the Obama Campaign is not sitting still for this Republican attack on A.C.O.R.N. and the false voter fraud fantasy that conservatives are trying to sell the public. The Obama Campaign issued a letter to the Justice Department requesting that the Special Investigator Nora Dannehy expand her investigation to look into the McCain campaign's attempt at voter suppression. accused it "trying to create a much greater doubt about the electoral process altogether," by alleging that ACORN voter fraud could threaten the fabric of our democracy, as McCain claimed in the debate Wednesday night.

Keith tonight interviewed Bob Bauer, an elections lawyer with the Obama camp, who wrote the letter to the DOJ.

He basically told Olbermann that the Obama campaign are concerned that the DOJ's election-eve investigation into ACORN is a repeat of the politicization of the department that we saw in 2006 that led to the US attorney firings scandal.


libertyAir Blog

Earlier today Bauer released a letter that he sent on behalf of Senator Obama to Attorney General Michael Mukasey calling on him to have the issue taken on by Nora Dannehy, the prosecutor he appointed to investigate the US attorney firings.

Rachel Maddow followed up on this story with an interview of George Washington University Professor Jonathan Turley.


libertyAir Blog

Return of McCarthyism

Nutjob Representatve Michele Bachmann (a Republican from Minnesota, I'm so ashamed) on MSNBC’s Hardball today called Barak Obama anti-American, and suggested that all liberal views — held by people such as Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, college professors, and all Americans who identify themselves as “liberals” — are “anti-American.”

So even though I served my country in the US Marine Corps, and pay my taxes, because I believe Liberalism is the right political thought for myself, I am Anti-American. Bachmann is psychotic.

Chris Matthews, stunned by her remarks, asked Bachmann how many people in Congress hold anti-American views, she responded, “You’ll have to ask them.” Matthews really did seem to be stunned by her diatribe.

Bachmann called on the media to conduct investigations into the anti-American activities of members of Congress, similar to Sen. Joseph McCarthy’s discredited House Un-American Activities Committee hearings in the 1950s. “I think people would love to see an exposé like that,” she claimed.

Watch it:

LibertyAir Blog

two things to cheer about

Investors did have two things to cheer about this week.

The Dow and the S&P 500, wer up 4.8% and 4.6% for the week, respectively. Both markets enjoyed their best weekly performances since March 2003.
The Nasdaq was up 3.8% gain on the week to have its best since the week of August 4th.
All three market indexes had their first weekly gains after five weeks of losses.

The Dow finished above its Oct. 10 close of 8,451. This showed the market’s ability to bounce back from last week, and put it above the level it reached on Monday. It maintained gains what it made on Monday even as many investors were taking profits (see Wednesday's slide). This may help reduce fear and add confidence to the markets for weeks to come, and confidence is what the markets need.

There are some who are saying that the Dow's Oct. 10 close will prove to be the bottom for the market. I don't want to go that far, but we may be past the worst of the sell-offs.

Dow off 127 as late selling clips rally

The roller coaster continued right up until the end of the week. After closing over 400 points up the dow closed down today. At the closing bell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 127 points, or 1.4%, to 8,852; blue chips had been up as much as 302 points this afternoon. The Nasdaq Composite finished down 6 points to 1,711, and the broader Standard & Poor's 500 Index was off 6 points to 941.

The fade was a continuation of the big volatility trend that's dominated trading in recent weeks. Today's swing for the 30 Dow stocks from bottom to top was 563 points. It had to be a disappointment for investors, as the big afternoon rally for stocks ran out of gas.

Hey Sarah Palin, a great video

I saw this video on the The Young Turks yesterday, and just had to add it to the site. Hope you enjoy


LibertyAir Blog

Barack Obama Ad: 90% of the time

In Barack Obama's latest campaign ad, he challenges John McCain; "You may not be Bush, but you sure vote to support his policies."

Check out the video here:


LibertyAir Blog

Breaking News: Supreme Court Rules Against Ohio Republicans in ‘Voter Fraud’ Case.»


Earlier this week, the 6th Circuit Court of Appeals sided with Ohio Republicans in ruling that the Secretary of State must “establish a system of verification that would match driver’s license numbers or Social Security numbers with new voter applications.” Today, the Supreme Court reversed the ruling, saying the lower courts were wrong to get involved in the issue. This was the biggest Republican "voter fraud" case, and it just got thrown out by George Bush's conservative Republican US Supreme Court.

The Ohio GOP tried to challenge the voting rights of 200,000 voters in that state, after ACORN and others registered a couple hundred thousand voters. Not because these voters were ineligiable to vote, but because they might have misspelled names on their registration forms.

The conservative U.S. Supreme Court just took the side of Democrats in Ohio, and ACORN, and overturned a lower court's decision which took the side of the GOP. Ohio's Secretary of State appealed that earlier ruling to the U.S. Supreme Court -- and won.

The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that voter protection laws of Ohio were enough to verify the identities and validity of voters, and that additional measures for counties to verify voter eligibility were burdesome and would not provide additional protection.

McCain campaign manager Rick Davis of course objected to the Court's ruling.

Bush Gives Yet Another Pep Talk...

Markets open down.

Seriously, can George W. Bush really needs to stop. He is not helping.

Washington Post Endorses Obama in Friday's Edition

Barack Obama for President

THE NOMINATING process this year produced two unusually talented and qualified presidential candidates. There are few public figures we have respected more over the years than Sen. John McCain. Yet it is without ambivalence that we endorse Sen. Barack Obama for president.

The choice is made easy in part by Mr. McCain's disappointing campaign, above all his irresponsible selection of a running mate who is not ready to be president. It is made easy in larger part, though, because of our admiration for Mr. Obama and the impressive qualities he has shown during this long race. Yes, we have reservations and concerns, almost inevitably, given Mr. Obama's relatively brief experience in national politics. But we also have enormous hopes.

Mr. Obama is a man of supple intelligence, with a nuanced grasp of complex issues and evident skill at conciliation and consensus-building. At home, we believe, he would respond to the economic crisis with a healthy respect for markets tempered by justified dismay over rising inequality and an understanding of the need for focused regulation. Abroad, the best evidence suggests that he would seek to maintain U.S. leadership and engagement, continue the fight against terrorists, and wage vigorous diplomacy on behalf of U.S. values and interests. Mr. Obama has the potential to become a great president. Given the enormous problems he would confront from his first day in office, and the damage wrought over the past eight years, we would settle for very good.

The first question, in fact, might be why either man wants the job. Start with two ongoing wars, both far from being won; an unstable, nuclear-armed Pakistan; a resurgent Russia menacing its neighbors; a terrorist-supporting Iran racing toward nuclear status; a roiling Middle East; a rising China seeking its place in the world. Stir in the threat of nuclear or biological terrorism, the burdens of global poverty and disease, and accelerating climate change. Domestically, wages have stagnated while public education is failing a generation of urban, mostly minority children. Now add the possibility of the deepest economic trough since the Great Depression.

Not even his fiercest critics would blame President Bush for all of these problems, and we are far from being his fiercest critic. But for the past eight years, his administration, while pursuing some worthy policies (accountability in education, homeland security, the promotion of freedom abroad), has also championed some stunningly wrongheaded ones (fiscal recklessness, torture, utter disregard for the planet's ecological health) and has acted too often with incompetence, arrogance or both. A McCain presidency would not equal four more years, but outside of his inner circle, Mr. McCain would draw on many of the same policymakers who have brought us to our current state. We believe they have richly earned, and might even benefit from, some years in the political wilderness.

OF COURSE, Mr. Obama offers a great deal more than being not a Republican. There are two sets of issues that matter most in judging these candidacies. The first has to do with restoring and promoting prosperity and sharing its fruits more evenly in a globalizing era that has suppressed wages and heightened inequality. Here the choice is not a close call. Mr. McCain has little interest in economics and no apparent feel for the topic. His principal proposal, doubling down on the Bush tax cuts, would exacerbate the fiscal wreckage and the inequality simultaneously. Mr. Obama's economic plan contains its share of unaffordable promises, but it pushes more in the direction of fairness and fiscal health. Both men have pledged to tackle climate change.

Mr. Obama also understands that the most important single counter to inequality, and the best way to maintain American competitiveness, is improved education, another subject of only modest interest to Mr. McCain. Mr. Obama would focus attention on early education and on helping families so that another generation of poor children doesn't lose out. His budgets would be less likely to squeeze out important programs such as Head Start and Pell grants. Though he has been less definitive than we would like, he supports accountability measures for public schools and providing parents choices by means of charter schools.

A better health-care system also is crucial to bolstering U.S. competitiveness and relieving worker insecurity. Mr. McCain is right to advocate an end to the tax favoritism showed to employer plans. This system works against lower-income people, and Mr. Obama has disparaged the McCain proposal in deceptive ways. But Mr. McCain's health plan doesn't do enough to protect those who cannot afford health insurance. Mr. Obama hopes to steer the country toward universal coverage by charting a course between government mandates and individual choice, though we question whether his plan is affordable or does enough to contain costs.

The next president is apt to have the chance to nominate one or more Supreme Court justices. Given the court's current precarious balance, we think Obama appointees could have a positive impact on issues from detention policy and executive power to privacy protections and civil rights.

Overshadowing all of these policy choices may be the financial crisis and the recession it is likely to spawn. It is almost impossible to predict what policies will be called for by January, but certainly the country will want in its president a combination of nimbleness and steadfastness -- precisely the qualities Mr. Obama has displayed during the past few weeks. When he might have been scoring political points against the incumbent, he instead responsibly urged fellow Democrats in Congress to back Mr. Bush's financial rescue plan. He has surrounded himself with top-notch, experienced, centrist economic advisers -- perhaps the best warranty that, unlike some past presidents of modest experience, Mr. Obama will not ride into town determined to reinvent every policy wheel. Some have disparaged Mr. Obama as too cool, but his unflappability over the past few weeks -- indeed, over two years of campaigning -- strikes us as exactly what Americans might want in their president at a time of great uncertainty.

ON THE SECOND set of issues, having to do with keeping America safe in a dangerous world, it is a closer call. Mr. McCain has deep knowledge and a longstanding commitment to promoting U.S. leadership and values.

But Mr. Obama, as anyone who reads his books can tell, also has a sophisticated understanding of the world and America's place in it. He, too, is committed to maintaining U.S. leadership and sticking up for democratic values, as his recent defense of tiny Georgia makes clear. We hope he would navigate between the amoral realism of some in his party and the counterproductive cocksureness of the current administration, especially in its first term. On most policies, such as the need to go after al-Qaeda, check Iran's nuclear ambitions and fight HIV/AIDS abroad, he differs little from Mr. Bush or Mr. McCain. But he promises defter diplomacy and greater commitment to allies. His team overstates the likelihood that either of those can produce dramatically better results, but both are certainly worth trying.

Mr. Obama's greatest deviation from current policy is also our biggest worry: his insistence on withdrawing U.S. combat troops from Iraq on a fixed timeline. Thanks to the surge that Mr. Obama opposed, it may be feasible to withdraw many troops during his first two years in office. But if it isn't -- and U.S. generals have warned that the hard-won gains of the past 18 months could be lost by a precipitous withdrawal -- we can only hope and assume that Mr. Obama would recognize the strategic importance of success in Iraq and adjust his plans.

We also can only hope that the alarming anti-trade rhetoric we have heard from Mr. Obama during the campaign would give way to the understanding of the benefits of trade reflected in his writings. A silver lining of the financial crisis may be the flexibility it gives Mr. Obama to override some of the interest groups and members of Congress in his own party who oppose open trade, as well as to pursue the entitlement reform that he surely understands is needed.

IT GIVES US no pleasure to oppose Mr. McCain. Over the years, he has been a force for principle and bipartisanship. He fought to recognize Vietnam, though some of his fellow ex-POWs vilified him for it. He stood up for humane immigration reform, though he knew Republican primary voters would punish him for it. He opposed torture and promoted campaign finance reform, a cause that Mr. Obama injured when he broke his promise to accept public financing in the general election campaign. Mr. McCain staked his career on finding a strategy for success in Iraq when just about everyone else in Washington was ready to give up. We think that he, too, might make a pretty good president.

But the stress of a campaign can reveal some essential truths, and the picture of Mr. McCain that emerged this year is far from reassuring. To pass his party's tax-cut litmus test, he jettisoned his commitment to balanced budgets. He hasn't come up with a coherent agenda, and at times he has seemed rash and impulsive. And we find no way to square his professed passion for America's national security with his choice of a running mate who, no matter what her other strengths, is not prepared to be commander in chief.

ANY PRESIDENTIAL vote is a gamble, and Mr. Obama's résumé is undoubtedly thin. We had hoped, throughout this long campaign, to see more evidence that Mr. Obama might stand up to Democratic orthodoxy and end, as he said in his announcement speech, "our chronic avoidance of tough decisions."

But Mr. Obama's temperament is unlike anything we've seen on the national stage in many years. He is deliberate but not indecisive; eloquent but a master of substance and detail; preternaturally confident but eager to hear opposing points of view. He has inspired millions of voters of diverse ages and races, no small thing in our often divided and cynical country. We think he is the right man for a perilous moment.

Joe the Plumber; Another Embarrassment by McCain

The biggest thing coming out of Wednesday's debate was of course "Joe the Plumber." I will admit that when John McCain first referenced Joe, I thought it was pretty smart. It put a human face on his argument, and though I thought he went to the well a dozen to many times during the debate, I still thought a good ploy. This of course was because I thought McCain's campaign aides would have vetted Joe.

Boy was I wrong.

Seriously, do McCain's campaign aides even know what the word "vet" means in this context. Vet has multiple meanings, and means more than short hand for someone who served in the military. I really have to wonder.

How could McCain hang his final presidential debate performance on an Ohio "plumber" who campaign aides never vetted?

Joe the Plumber owes back taxes, is not a licensed plumber, and is not an independent voter. And it turns out that Wurzelbacher is not planning on buying a company, makes a lot less than $250,000 a year, and would receive a larger tax cut if Obama were elected president.

A McCain campaign source told the Politico on Thursday that the campaign read about Joe the Plumber on the Drudge Report, while another campaign aide confirmed that he was not vetted.
So the McCain campaign is using Drudge to do their vetting now?

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

CBS, CNN, FOX INSTANT REACTION... OBAMA TROUNCES MCCAIN

From the Huffington Post:

John McCain didn't just fail to get the game-changer he needed -- he was trounced in this third and final debate, if the instant post-debate polling provides any indication.

The results over at CBS show Obama to have scored the biggest victory to date: "Fifty-three percent of the uncommitted voters surveyed identified Democratic nominee Barack Obama as the winner of tonight's debate. Twenty-two percent said Republican rival John McCain won.
Twenty-four percent saw the debate as a draw."

It is, the site writes, "a clean sweep" for the Illinois Democrat.

Over at CNN, a separate poll of several hundred debate watchers again favored the Democrat by large margins: 58 percent for Obama to McCain's 31 percent. Perhaps more importantly, McCain's favorable rating dropped 51 to 49 while his unfavorable rating increased from 45 percent to 49 percent. Obama ended up with 66 percent favorable rating.

Digging into the details the news is even worse for the Arizona Republican.

Asked who "expressed his views more clearly" 66 percent said Obama, 25 percent said McCain.

"Who spent their time attacking his opponent:" 80 percent said McCain, seven percent said Obama. "Who seemed to be the stronger leader:" 56 percent for Obama, 39 percent for McCain.

And who was "more likeable:" 70 percent for Obama to McCain's 22 percent.

CNN also conducted a smaller focus group of 25 undecided likely voters in Ohio, and Obama won that too, 15-10.

Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg, meanwhile, conducted some polling before and after the debate and here are his findings.

CNN Poll: Obama wins debate, 58-31





An instant CBS poll of uncommitted voters said Obama was the winner 53-22. CBS’s polls found that in the first presidential debate, second presidential debate and vice presidential debate, more uncommitted voters said the Democratic candidate was the victor.


Daily Show: McCain Recycles His Stump Speeches

Now for something entirerly different. The other night on the Daily Show, John Stewart pointed out how John McCain recycled many of the lines used in Tuesday's economic stump speech. Remember this was the fresh new speech.


LibertyAir Blog

McCain Did Not Get Game Change

The final debate is over, and again people will be able to offer convincing arguments as to why each candidate won the debate. Barak Obama was calm, cool, and had well thought answers to all the questions, and did counter many of the attacks. John McCain came out swinging, hit Barak Obama with some strong attacks, he was aggressive and scored a few points.

However he never scored a really telling punch, and Barak Obama did not trip himself up.

McCain needed the game-changer and he didn't get it. The snorts, the heavy breathing, and the eye rolls could not have helped his message.

Barak Obama again showed that he is Presidential, that he is bright, and hopeful, and looking towards the future of our country. John McCain again showed that his time is past, that he is focused on the past.

McCain Spends Most of His Time Attacking

John McCain has spent most of his time in answering every question to attack Obama far more than articulating his own position. Watching the debate on CNN it shows that as McCain attacks Obama, his numbers go down - it's a failing tactic but it's clear that at this point John McCain has nothing else. Every McCain answer starts with an attack on Obama. Every one. He sounds angry and really frustrated. There is such a stark difference between these candidates. One has a vision... and one really is a cranky old man who can only look backwards.

McCain: America is just "angry"

McCain thinks America is angry. He has repeated this a half dozen times.

U.S. forces to withdraw from Iraq

Reuters is reporting that the U.S. and Iraq have reached a final agreement after months of negotiations on a pact that would require U.S. forces to withdraw from Iraq by 2011. Senior U.S. officials in Washington have confirmed that the final draft has been agreed by both sides and would require U.S. troops to leave by the end of 2011, unless Iraq asks them to stay longer.

Iraq is claiming that it has secured the right to prosecute U.S. soldiers for serious crimes under certain circumstances, an issue both sides had long said was holding up the pact. U.S. officials have confirmed a compromise had been reached on the immunity issue but gave no further details.

The agreement was submitted to Iraqi political leaders for approval, a first step toward ratifying it in the Iraqi parliament.

The American Promise

I just love this video, and so before the debate tonight I thought I would post this video as a reminder about why Obama.


LibertyAir Blog

Baltic Dry Index Falls Nearly 20% in Two Days

One thing about this financial crisis is that people are learning about all these indexes that affect their lives. How many people before the financial crisis knew what the Libor Rate was and why it so affects their lives. Now today I have learned about the Baltic Dry Index and why the news is not good for the economy.

The Baltic Dry Index is an index covering dry bulk shipping rates and managed by the Baltic Exchange in London. According to Baltic Exchange, the index provides:

“…an assessment of the price of moving the major raw materials by sea. Taking in 26 shipping routes measured on a timecharter and voyage basis, the index covers Supramax, Panamax, and Capesize dry bulk carriers carrying a range of commodities including coal, iron ore and grain.”

Because dry bulk primarily consists of materials that function as raw material inputs to the production of intermediate or finished goods, such as concrete, electricity, steel, and food, the index is also seen as a good economic indicator of future economic growth and production, termed a leading economic indicator because it predicts future economic activity.

The Baltic Dry Index has been falling since late June, not long before the commodities bubble burst in July, and has been in retreat since then. What is particularly worrisome is its steep dive in the last two days, despite Herculean efforts to get the banking system operational.

This Guardian article suggests that the culprit may be a rapid deterioration in the Chinese economy, but I am also concerned that another factor may be at work that the financing of trade is seriously impaired. In this post "International Trade Seizing Up Due to Credit Crisis," from the Naked Capitalism blog there are reports cited that banks are refusing to honor letters of credit from other banks. If this persists, international trade will break down, because shipping companies rely on these letters to underwrite their vast cargos.

There is some hope today that the worst of the financial crisis may be over, thanks to the mass injections of capital into banks by governments in Europe and the US. But the damage to the world economy is already a fact of life and the Baltic Dry is pointing to a further slowdown in both output and inflation in many of the world's economies.

Dow drops 733


The Dow dropped 8% today.


The Dow Jones industrials fell more than 700 points today, its second-largest point loss ever, as stocks were slammed by growing economic worries and disappointing reports on retail sales and manufacturing.


The gloom on Wall Street deepened this afternoon when the Federal Reserve's Beige Book report, an anecdotal look at the economy, painted a picture of weakening business across the country, with almost all sectors falling back.


The economic worries also weighed on crude oil, which fell below $75 a barrel for the first time since August 2007. Energy stocks slumped in response.


At the close, the Dow was down 733 points, or 7.9%, to 8,578, according to a preliminary tally. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index tumbled 90 points, or 9%, to 908, and the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 151 points, or 8.5%, to 1,628.

Obama-Biden Tax Calculator

Barack Obama and Joe Biden will cut taxes for 95% of working families, and provide at least three times as much tax relief for middle class families as John McCain and Sarah Palin. The Obama/Biden plan provides $1,000 of tax relief for workers and new tax benefits to help families pay for college, childcare and save for retirement.

Check out the Obama tax calculator site here and share it with your friends.



LibertyAir Blog

Deficit Watch

Remember when Bush was going to balance the budget by 2009? Guess he is going to miss that promise.

John D. McKinnon writes in the Wall Street Journal: "The federal government ran a deficit of almost $455 billion in fiscal 2008, the White House reported, a record that will likely be far exceeded by the red ink in the current fiscal year.

"The widening deficit -- up from $162 billion for fiscal 2007 -- stemmed in large part from lower revenues and higher expenditures due to the troubled economy, as well as higher defense spending in Iraq and Afghanistan.

"As bad as 2008 was, the current fiscal year, which began Oct. 1, is widely expected to be far worse. The director of the Congressional Budget Office recently estimated the annual deficit could hit $750 billion given the potential impacts from a possible recession and the financial markets' problems. Some private economists put the 2009 deficit at as much as $1 trillion."

Presidential Debate Preview:

The Huffington Post has a great preview of tonight's Presidential Debate. The stakes are high for John McCain, as we are less than three weeks away from election day. John McCain has been heightening expectations for a fight tonight, going so far to say that he is going to "Whip" Obama's "You-Know-What". But remember before last Tuesday's debate he made a similar move, suggesting to a crowd that he would "take the gloves off."

So the question is will John McCain throw caution to the wind and come out swinging at Barak Obama? Will he bring up William Ayers tonight? Or will he bring up Reverend Wright?

This is the drama of tonight, will John McCain go down swinging, or will he repeat his second debate performance? And if McCain does bring up Ayers or Wright, how will Obama respond? I think this is why people will watch tonight.

Olbermann: McCain is "a fraud"

This is a great Special Comment by Keith Olbermann from yesterday. Read the full transcript here and watch the video below.


LibertyAir Blog

The Obama Campaign on Tonight's Debate

The Obama campaign lays out what's at stake in tonight's debate:

In tonight’s debate, Chuck Todd of NBC News says, McCain needs to “figure out how to disqualify Barack Obama.” Time Magazine’s Mark Halperin writes, “McCain will have to produce a major memorable moment.” The NY Daily News says the debate is “do-or-die for McCain’s campaign.” However they put it, people agree, John McCain needs a game-changer.

On the big issues, this debate is one last chance for John McCain to do what he has failed to do throughout this entire campaign: explain to the American people how his economic policies would be any different at all than the failed Bush agenda he has supported every step of the way. It’s his last chance to somehow convince the American people that his erratic response to this economic crisis doesn’t disqualify him from being President.

Just this weekend, John McCain vowed to “whip Obama’s you-know-what” at the debate, and he’s indicated that he’ll use Bill Ayers to attack Barack Obama. Even though Senator McCain has said he doesn’t “give a damn” about Bill Ayers, his campaign has admitted that if he talks about the economy, he’ll lose.

But perhaps the NY Times explained the peril of McCain’s negative strategy best this morning when they wrote: After several weeks in which the McCain campaign unleashed a series of strong political attacks on Mr. Obama, trying to tie him to a former 1960s radical, among other things, the poll found that more voters see Mr. McCain as waging a negative campaign than Mr. Obama. Six in 10 voters surveyed said that Mr. McCain had spent more time attacking Mr. Obama than explaining what he would do as president; by about the same number, voters said Mr. Obama was spending more of his time explaining than attacking. [NYT/CBS Poll, NY Times 10/15/08]

Senator Obama is going to use the debate to discuss his plan for the economy. That’s what he’s been doing this entire campaign. And on Monday, he built on his proposals in a new Rescue Plan for the Middle Class. That’s the kind of steady leadership and real change Americans are looking for – not John McCain’s erratic handling of the crisis, his constant character attacks, and the same Bush policies that have failed us for eight years.

But after two debates in which John McCain didn’t mention the middle class once –
and after his campaign declared openly that they want to turn the page on talking about the economy – the real question is not how many attacks McCain can land in the debate, but whether he can finally communicate a vision to turn this economy around.

And while McCain has promised to attack Obama in the debate, every minute that he ignores the economy and the middle class is not just a minute wasted but time spent on attacks that even some of those closest to him have said don’t work.

McCain Tries To Blame Financial Crisis On Democratic Takeover Of Congress In 2007

In an interview with right-wing radio host Michael Medved this past Friday, John McCain agreed with Medved’s assertion that “the economy was really progressing pretty well under most of President Bush’s term” before Democrats took control of Congress in January 2007:

MEDVED: Let me ask you one other thing senator, which again, I think is on the minds of lots and lots of our listeners. The economy was really progressing pretty well under most of President Bush’s term. Then the Democrats took over in Congress in 2007 and now we’re in this horrible crisis. Coincidence?

MCCAIN: No, it isn’t.

McCain went on to place the blame for the financial crisis on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, claiming that Democrats “were willing co-conspirators with this game of three-card monty that went on and then it collapsed.”

This claim that “the economy was progressing really well” before Democrats took control of Congress is a joke.

As Center for American Progress Senior Fellow Christian Weller’s economic snapshot from December 2006 shows, the economy was already in rough shape:

Famly Debt Was Rising: By September 2006, household debt rose to an unprecedented 130.9% of disposable income. From March 2001 to September 2006, personal debt relative to disposable income grew each quarter by 1.6 percentage points—almost five times faster than in the 1990s. In the second quarter of 2006, families had to spend 14.4% of their disposable income to service their debt—the largest share since 1980.

The Housing Market Had Slowed: The supply of homes for sale each month averaged 6.9 months of supply for the six months ending in October 2006—the largest supply since 1991.

Savings Had Plummeted: The personal saving rate of -1.3% in the third quarter of 2006 marked the sixth quarter in a row with a negative personal saving rate.


As for John McCain’s claim that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are the central cause of the current economic crisis is a total fabrication. McClatchy Newspaper thoroughly debunked this conservative talking point over the weekend, writing that “private sector loans, not Fannie or Freddie, triggered crisis.” McClatchy Newspaper notes that the “weakening of underwriting standards for U.S. subprime mortgages” began in late 2004 while Republicans controlled both the House and the Senate.

1111111

G7 Financial Rescue Plan

Over the weekend G7 governments agreed to address this global financial crisis in a coordinated manner, laying out a set of common objectives and principles so that each country could define its own special local financial program.

Here are the main policy actions that will be undertaken:

NIE: Pakistan on Brink

The new National Intelligence Estimate on Pakistan apparently depicts the country as 'on the edge,' with 'no money, no energy, no government.' The fear is expressed that an unstable Pakistan will become a center for al-Qaeda plotting against the US.

While I think the situation in Pakistan is worriesome and should be monitored, and the US should work to back the democratically elected government, lets not go crazy. The situation in Pakistan for ordinary people has always been tough.

Fuel and wheat prices have skyrocketed in Pakistan. However the worry shown in the NIE might have more to do with the fall of Pervez Musharraf considering a third of the population of Pakistan has had to live on less than a dollar a day and the NIE wasn't so worried about them a few years ago.

American reports about Pakistan are schizophrenic, because it says the Pakistani army is not fighting the Taliban. But the Pakistani military has chased 300,000 from their homes in Bajaur, one of 7 tribal agencies, and has engaged in firefights with dissident Muslim groups there. I mean, what do the authors of the NIE want?

The Pakistani military admittedly does not attack the Pushtun tribes it is paying to make trouble in southern Afghanistan, but then their activity is abroad and directed from Islamabad. The Mohmands and other tribes in Bajaur have been fighting the Pakistani military, which has hit them hard in retaliation. Fighting has been spreading across Pakistan's rugged northwest as the government tries to crack down on insurgents blamed for soaring attacks on U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan and a bloody campaign of suicide bombings against military and western targets within Pakistan.

The idea that the 3.5 million Pushtuns of the tribal areas could take over a country of 165 million with one of the most professional armies in Asia is just silly.

Analysis of Barak Obama's Rescue Package

I read this article on Barak Obama's rescue package over at the Young Turks, and thought it was a really good analysis of theeconomic plan

Obama's Economic Rescue Package So On The Mark It Would Be A True Game Changer, In A Good Way
by Ben F. Terton "The Moderate Independent"

Half a decade. That's how long I've waited to write this article.

For half a decade the only articles I've been able to write were the ones that explained that, despite "expert" commentary to the contrary, the nation was headed toward a major economic collapse. And then that the collapse was beginning. And then to repeat, yes, really, there's going to be a collapse. And then, finally, I guess now you see what I meant.

The reason I've been able to predict exactly what was going to happen to the economy half a decade ahead of time was not because I'm psychic. It was because during that period, with Republican conservatives in control of the government, there were no significant changes of policy. And so the disastrous course that was set beginning with the first round of Bush tax cuts just trickled on and on, like a slow motion bullet headed toward the nation's heart but with the nation pinned there by the GOP, blindfolded by media nonsense, and so doomed by an easily escapable problem.

Any significant change of policy during that time could have headed off this disaster. But neither Republican nor Democrat ever really hit the mark.

Until now.

Senator Obama's plan was shocking for many reasons. So far ahead in the race, it was unexpected that he would release such a bold, detailed plan. But more than that, it was truly shocking to see, for the first time in a generation, a politician hit a mark so directly on the head. Delivering exactly to the true middle class, rather than to either the poorer people or the richer, Obama's simple, relatively cheap economic rescue plan, if enacted, would immediately and significantly alter the course of the American economy for the better.

Here's why this plan blows all previous ones away.

The first part is pretty simple and only somewhat significant. His offer of tax cuts directly tied to the creation of new jobs - offering $3000 per new job created in America. For years one of the things I pointed out as a flaw in the conservative dogma was that they claimed giving tax cuts to businesses would create jobs, but they never attached any mechanism to the cuts that made it so. They simply handed money to companies, which could decide to use the money for bonuses for their CEO's - which is what they did - rather than create jobs. If they truly wanted to use tax cuts to business to create jobs, I wrote for years, there had to be something in the cuts that required them to be used for hiring.

Obama's plan does exactly that. And notice the last part of his plan - "$3000 per new job created in America." Previous cuts allowed companies to spend their cash overseas. Obama explicitly stops this.

What you see here is a fundamental shift - Obama is actually looking out for America and for the American people. The Republicans were not stupid. They knew if you just handed cuts to businesses without specifying what the money had to be used for, it would go to bonuses and overseas projects. They just didn't care. They were the rich CEO's and they just wanted companies to get richer.

What Obama proposes in this part is simple, but massively different. For the first time in years, the American people are not having their hands tied behind their back while the government spits directly in their face. No lies, no games, no looking the other way. Barack Obama knew what needed to be done, but didn't put his trust in businesses, as conservatives do. He, in effect, instituted oversight and regulation all within a tax cut. And with that he got at the fundamental flaw of the conservative economic scheme: the idea that businesses act with America's best interest in mind, rather than for the profit of their executives and stock holders, which we all know is actually the case.

This part of Obama's plan is very nice. But what he came up with next was not only brilliant, but the most significantly positive step one could have imagined to immediately fix what is broken in the American economy - and in such a way that it has no real downside.

Barack's plan would allow people to withdraw 15% of their retirement funds, up to $10,000, in 2008 and again in 2009.

Now why is this such a big deal? And when I say big deal, I mean so big this could single-handedly save the American economy and head off depression and collapse.

Here's the rub: the average American family currently owes just under $10,000 in credit card debt.

What was destroying the American economy - and going to continue to destroy it for years - was that the American people weren't just spent out, they were overspent. After decades of spending more than they actually had thanks to easy credit, not only were they going to have to cut spending to get back to what they could afford, but all across the nation, people were completely slamming the door on spending to focus on trying to pay down all the debt they had accumulated.

Now with the numbers we've been hearing lately, $10,000 might not seem that much. But for your average middle class family, to pay that off while still getting by would literally mean years - two to five years - of eliminating virtually all non-essential spending. Cars, vacations, even going out to dinner, all things big and little were getting cut from household budgets left and right. With 2/3 of the American economy consumer spending, this was the problem that was destroying our nation.

Now look at Barack's plan. A family can, without penalty, immediately take $10,000 from their IRA and, instantly - instead of crimping and cutting for 4 years - have that debt be gone. And for those a little deeper in, they could do it a second time right after January, since it's allowed in 2008 and 2009.

There are a number of very important things to notice about this plan: unlike a tax cut stimulus plan, this doesn't cost the government a massive amount of money the nation would have to borrow. This plan allows people to help themselves get out of the mess they made. And, at the same time, it both:
1) 1 injects a bunch of cash into the economy, particularly helping fend off bank collapses by having people be able to pay off their debts - all without government borrowing - and,

2) gets people instantly out of the holes they are in, enabling them to begin spending again, and so instantly reviving every layer of the economy, from the corner pizza store to the car dealer.

The best part of this again, like with the first part of Barack's plan, is that more than just being a new policy, it is an important change of philosophy and a more advanced, doubly positive solution. Rather than the government bailing out those in trouble, this allows people to be bailed out but instead by themselves. Beyond this being better for the nation's economy, it is the philosophy of self-reliance and responsibility.

Most notably, this plan, unlike previous plans offered by Democrats, which helped only the poorer among us, or by Republicans, which helped only the richer among us, this plan directly hits the mark of helping the one group that always gets missed: the true middle class. If you are poor, this part of the plan won't help you at all. You won't have much of a 401(K), if any, and so won't have any funds to draw on. And if you are rich, $10,000 won't mean much one way or another.

But for the hard working people in the middle, people earning typically from the $30K's all the way up to $200K, this will be a lifesaver and game changer for each and every household. Even for families that can only withdraw $2000, that would still be years worth of paying down credit cards, since families with less would be able to pay less each month, and would be caught in the credit card interest cycle. Suddenly, boom, $2000 gone in 2008, another $2000 in 2009. Back in the game.

And for the others who can take more, they can either knock out credit card debt or, for those who mortgage woes, use that $10,000 a year to stay afloat for a while - $10,000 can buy a lot of time for a mortgage holder.

And again, since the funds are personal funds and not a tax handout, it is like a massive stimulus program and bank rescue program combined with no real cost to the nation whatsoever.

That is true brilliance.

This part of the plan could put people back on their feet in an instant and save countless banks and lenders by enabling people who would have otherwise gone bust to meet their obligations.
The only question anyone could have about this plan would be won't it hurt at retirement time? But truly, if everyone keeps crimping their spending for years to pay down this debt instead of doing it the way Barack's plan does, so many people would lose their jobs due to economic retraction that they would be far worse off come retirement time.

It's been a long time since I've been able to write an article that had any positive economic news in it. It's been a long run of dire and dark. But now there is hope. If this plan is enacted, combined with Obama's claim that he would launch an all out drive to build a new alternative energy economy, not only can America avoid a massive depression, but America could pull out of this recession in rather short order and, even better, climb to economic heights never seen before by bringing home all the wealth that's been going over to the Middle Eastern oil cartels, Russia, and Venezuela.

The third part of Obama's plan is also very sharp. State and local governments are in dire straights. Declining property tax, etc are sending numerous of them toward bankruptcy. Obama's plan would set up an emergency loan agency just for state and local governments. You know where they've had to go before? To a company called AIG - yes, that one we've had to bail out twice now, while it spends half a million on posh retreats. No more would local governments have to go to AIG - nor go bankrupt.

Again, philosophically, Obama is ending the era of putting America's trust in business. No more trusting AIG to back our governments. We are instead going to trust our government over the businesses. A fundamental shift, and not a moment too soon.

The last part of Obama's plan is a bit of a snoozer - a 90-day freeze on foreclosures. Not something too exciting one way or another. But it does buy some time for the other parts of the plan to be enacted, as well as for people to make plans for dealing with their mortgage situations.
It can not be overstated how important and miraculous this plan rolled out by Barack Obama is. And for a candidate who was far enough ahead in the polls that he could have played it safe and avoided putting any plan out there, it was a brave move, and much to the nation's benefit.
Politically, by truly putting tangible economic turnaround out there for the entire American middle class - pending the election of Obama and Democrats so they can pass this bill right after the election - Obama has won the pocketbooks, and likely the hearts and minds of millions of middle class voters. They say people always vote their pocketbooks. For millions, this plan would lift misery and stress and replace it with a return to normal life, with no bill left to pay down the road. With a vote for Barack meaning $10,000 will instantly be put in their pockets, it is hard to imagine anything but an even more massive swing toward Obama's candidacy by middle class voters. Look for a possible bluing of many currently red states, from the plain states to parts of the south.

I don't know where this idea came from for Obama - if it was Warren Buffet or another advisor who gave it to him. But for Obama to choose the plan that exactly hit the mark, and in the gentlest, smartest possible way, he has shown in one of America's most desperate moments ever that he has the vision and leadership to right the nation's ship amidst the wildest storm.
Bravo.

And thank you, Barack, for at last allowing me to write an article about a potential positive development for the American economy.

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

McCain Unveils New Economic Stimulus Proposal: Tax Cut For Millionaires

Today, John McCain finally revealed his new economic proposal. Remember on Saturday night, the McCain campaign told Politico.com that it was planning to unveil “new economic plans” that included temporary tax cuts on capital gains. Then on Sunday Morning Senator Graham said on the Sunday Morning news show that McCain would be coming out with a HUGE new plan. By Sunday night the McCain campaign was denying there was going to be a new plan, then there was some hint that there would be some announcement.

Monday came and John McCain didn’t announce anything, which caused some confusion, and then Barack Obama stepped up and announced “a new economic rescue plan geared toward middle-class voters.”

So of course John McCain decided he had to announce a plan. Of course since he and his campaign have no new ideas his new proposals was a lot like his old, with tax cuts for the rich. John McCain announced plans to “cut the capital gains tax on stock profits in half, from 15 percent now on stocks held a year or longer to 7.5 percent.

Think Progress has more here.

The Wonk Room’s James Kvaal noted the impact of cutting capital gains:
Households earning less than $50,000 a year collected a mere 2.5 percent of capital gains in 2005, according to the Tax Policy Center. Families earning more than $1 million a year collected 59 percent of capital gains. Moreover, most middle-class families with capital gains hold their investments in retirement accounts shielded against capital gains taxes.

Of course with the markets down 30%+ over the past year, the question is "What capital gains?"

Former Fed Chief Says U.S. Now in Recession

When I first read this I thought duh? But it is news that former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker has said that the U.S. economy is in recession. He went on to say that the priority for U.S. authorities in the credit crisis needs to be stabilizing the financial system even though this would mean heavy government intrusion.

Volcker is credited for battling double-digit inflation that flared in the 1970s. He was a chairman of the U.S. central bank between 1979 and 1987, before handing the reins over to Alan Greenspan, and oversaw a sharp increase in interest rates to quell the price pressures.

Volcker is currently the chairman of the board of trustees of the Group of 30, an international body composed of central bank governors, leading economists and private financial sector experts.

More on the Government Plan

From the WSJ:

"The U.S. government is expected to take stakes in nine of the nation's top financial institutions as part of a new plan to restore confidence to the battered U.S. banking system, a far-reaching effort that puts the government's guarantee behind the basic plumbing of financial markets.

To kick off Tuesday's expected announcement, the government is set to buy preferred equity stakes in Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Corp. -- including the soon-to-be acquired Merrill Lynch -- Citigroup Inc., Wells Fargo & Co., Bank of New York Mellon and State Street Corp., according to people familiar with the matter. (...)

Other elements of the plan, which will be announced Tuesday morning, include: equity investments in possibly thousands of other banks; lifting the cap on deposit insurance for certain bank accounts, such as those used by small businesses; and guaranteeing certain types of bank lending. It builds on an earlier plan to buy up rotten assets dragging down banks, which failed to calm investor fears, and follows
similar moves by major European countries.

Formulated jointly by the Treasury Department, the Federal Reserve and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., these moves are designed to keep money flowing through the financial system, ensuring that banks continue lending to companies, consumers and each other. A freeze in these markets rippled through the economy and helped cause stocks to crater last week.

Along with the government's involvement come certain restrictions, such as caps on executive pay. For example, firms can't write new employment contracts containing golden parachutes and their ability to use certain executive salaries as a tax deduction is capped. These restrictions are relatively weak compared with what congressional Democrats had wanted when they approved this spending, a potential flash point."

GOVERNMENT TO PARTIALLY NATIONALIZE MAJOR US BANKS

From the Washington Post:

U.S. Forces Nine Major Banks To Accept Partial Nationalization

The U.S. government is dramatically escalating its response to the financial crisis by planning to invest $250 billion in the country's banks, forcing nine of the largest to accept a Treasury stake in what amounts to a partial nationalization.

News that European governments also planned to take stakes in their banks and anticipation of new U.S. measures unleashed a tremendous surge in U.S. stock prices yesterday, with the Dow Jones industrial average soaring to the biggest percentage gain since the 1930s, up 11.1 percent. It ended 936.42 points higher, the largest point gain ever, just days after the Dow had its steepest weekly decline in history.

The Treasury Department's decision to take equity stakes in banks represents a significant reversal, coming just weeks after Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. had opposed the idea. In a momentous meeting yesterday afternoon in Washington, Paulson, flanked by top financial regulators, told the executives of nine leading banks that they needed to participate in the program for the good of the national economy, two industry sources said on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly.

The government's initiative, which was to be announced this morning before the markets open for New York trading, is part of a wider plan that goes beyond the $700 billion rescue package approved by Congress earlier this month.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. is also set to announce today the launch of an insurance fund to guarantee new issues of bank debt. It will provide unlimited deposit insurance for non-interest-bearing accounts, which are widely used by small businesses for payroll and other purposes.

In pressing the bank executives to accept partial government ownership, Paulson's message was clear: Though officially the program was voluntary, the banks had little
choice in the matter. In exchange for giving the Treasury minority stakes, the nine firms would jointly receive an investment worth $125 billion. The government would make another $125 billion available for the next 30 days to thousands of other banks and thrifts across the country.

Federal officials set conditions, telling the banks they could not raise their dividends without government permission and could not offer their executives new retirement
packages, though the old packages would remain intact.

Paulson told them the moves would shore up confidence in their own institutions, spark lending throughout the system and send a message to smaller institutions that there is no stigma in accepting federal funding. Though some were reluctant, all of the executives complied.

There is a risk that banks will take the new government capital and use it to bolster their balance sheets but still not resume lending, and the Treasury is not getting any specific contractual guarantee to prevent that from happening. But bank regulators, particularly the Federal Reserve, will lean heavily on the firms receiving infusions to use the capital to increase their lending to businesses and consumers.

Taken together, the steps planned by the Treasury, the FDIC and the Federal Reserve amount to a monumental effort to jump-start the business of lending, which all but dried up in recent weeks as banks have lost faith in one another and their customers. Global markets began to melt down. Some emerging nations teetered on the brink of financial collapse.

Over the weekend, global leaders agreed in meetings in Washington to launch a coordinated program of injecting cash into the world's banks and guaranteeing their debt. The action by U.S. officials yesterday represented the U.S. version of those broad principles, and it was matched by similar efforts in Europe yesterday.

As part of the effort to flood the financial system with cash, the Federal Reserve made unlimited funds available early yesterday to other major central banks so they
could inject money into banks in their countries and ease the shortage of dollars they face. Previously, the Fed's program of lending dollars to the European Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Japan and others had been capped at a total of $380 billion.

Under the rescue legislation signed into law earlier this month, the Treasury is allowed to take equity stakes in banks.

During debates on Capitol Hill, Paulson repeatedly described that measure as a way
to shore up ailing financial institutions by buying their troubled mortgage securities and other assets.

Now that he has decided to use the $250 billion installment to pump capital directly into the banking system, he is planning to immediately ask Congress for a second installment of $100 billion to buy or insure the assets from institutions, according to congressional staff and banking industry executives briefed on the plan.