Monday, December 22, 2008

Franken Should Win by 50

It does not look like Al Franken will lose the lead he gained Friday in the Minnesota Senate recount. Franken's campaign recount attorney has consistantly used the same criteria for judging the ballots, and has been consistant in his message, where as Coleman's campaign has been all over the map, seizing on any bit of good news to create a positive narrative.

Currnetly Franken’s margin over Republican Norm Coleman stands at between 35 and 50 votes, and after the State Canvassing Board adds back thousands of withdrawn ballot challenges to its tally, it will likely remain the same.

The pronouncement that Franken will soon be Minnesota’s senator-elect is not just the campaign talking; it’s the campaign’s math talking. Franken’s figures always assumed that the challenged ballots would end up in the tally of the candidate for whom each one was originally called. Thus the internal count can predict the result of that work with certainty: a 35-50 vote lead for Franken.

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