Franken Should Win by 50

It does not look like Al Franken will lose the lead he gained Friday in the Minnesota Senate recount. Franken's campaign recount attorney has consistantly used the same criteria for judging the ballots, and has been consistant in his message, where as Coleman's campaign has been all over the map, seizing on any bit of good news to create a positive narrative.

Currnetly Franken’s margin over Republican Norm Coleman stands at between 35 and 50 votes, and after the State Canvassing Board adds back thousands of withdrawn ballot challenges to its tally, it will likely remain the same.

The pronouncement that Franken will soon be Minnesota’s senator-elect is not just the campaign talking; it’s the campaign’s math talking. Franken’s figures always assumed that the challenged ballots would end up in the tally of the candidate for whom each one was originally called. Thus the internal count can predict the result of that work with certainty: a 35-50 vote lead for Franken.

Franken Gets More Good News

On a day when Senate hopeful Al Franken had already received two bits of good news, the St. Paul Pioneer Press reported on another piece of really great news:

"Franken received unexpected good news when Deputy Secretary of State Jim Gelbmann dropped a mini-bombshell [at the state canvassing board meeting], telling the board that in overwhelmingly Democratic Duluth — which has not officially tallied rejected absentees — about 40 percent of that city's 319 rejected absentee ballots were mistakenly rejected. Gelbmann said the city rejected the votes because either the voter or the witness did not date their signatures. He said he couldn't find any state law to support such a rejection."

It has not been a good 24 hours for Norm Coleman, and so his campaign is going to go to court to try and stop the count, but they face long odds because there already are standards set forth in Minnesota election law for rejecting a ballot and the Franken campaign is rightly arguing that these standards should be used and that the rejected ballots that do not meet those four standards should be counted.

Franken Campaign Gains Big Win

Today was a big day in Minnesota regarding the Franken-Coleman senate race. I have to admit that I had begun to fear that Coleman was going to pull this race out. That Minnesota was going to have a senator who in the next year would be facing Federal indictments for corruption. I have met Norm Coleman, and he is as oily as he appears. Minnesota really does not want this corrupt little man as a senator. That is why today's news is so good. Al Franken's chances of winning the Minnesota recount may have just gone up astronomically. The state canvassing board in Minnesota got together this morning to determine whether to count improperly rejected absentee ballots. For Al Franken, obviously, the goal was to have the ballots included.

The canvassing board members agreed, making the Democrat's chances of victory that much more likely. Eric Kleefeld explained that Franken's chances of winning "may have just gone up astronomically."

The state canvassing board just voted unanimously that absentee ballots that were initially rejected because of clerical errors -- and the current estimate from the hearing is that there could be nearly 1,600 of them, based on some extrapolation -- should be counted, probably the single biggest issue that the Franken campaign has been hammering ever since this recount began.

The board can't directly order the county officials to do the counting, only making a formal request to go back and count the votes and then submit amended totals. But many counties have already begun or finished the process of sorting the rejected absentees at the board's request, and board members did castigate any election officials who wouldn't do so, with some of them even leaving open the option of seeking a court order if necessary.

Because of all that, it seems very likely that the vast majority of these ballots will be counted before this is over -- and it could possibly seal the deal for Franken. Pre-election polling showed him winning the overall pool of absentee ballots by a solid margin, so it seems pretty reasonable to assume that the newly-counted votes will break for Al. If that proves to be correct, Franken will probably pull ahead of Norm Coleman and win the election.

The Minneapolis Star Tribune has more on this morning's meeting. They report that the Coleman campaign is asking the state Supreme Court that the counting of rejected absentee ballots be halted until a standard procedure is established. It looks like 13 percent of the rejected absentee ballots were tossed improperly, which would mean that nearly 1,600 absentee ballots were wrongfully set aside. Consideing the margin between Coleman and Franken, that number could be huge. No wonder the Coleman campaign is working its ass off to keep these votes from being counted, even though they were tossed improperly.

At the same time the two campaigns are now challenging a combined total of 4,472 Election Day ballots that have been reviewed during the statewide recount.

Also the issue of the 133 mystery ballots was brought before the board. Minneapolis elections director Cindy Reichert, who reviewed the futile search for 133 missing ballots that disappeared from the Minneapolis voting office. Franken's campaign had lodged a protest over the 133 votes, while the Coleman campaign argued there was no proof the votes actually exsisted. Reichert reported to the board, "We determined definitively the ballots were missing." She said the idea that the ballots may have been fed in twice -- creating an inflated overall vote total -- is not a viable theory.

Reichert recommended that the board accept the number of votes in the precinct counted on Election Night: 2,028. Good news for the Franken campaign was that the board accepted Reichert's request. However, board member Magnuson, chief justice of the state Supreme Court, said the matter would "no doubt" be headed to court.

Now that last bit is a bit sobering. This race is nowhere near over, but after a week of bad news, Al Franken got some much needed good news today.

Al Franken is Reportedly Ahead by 22 Votes

Democratic senatorial candidate Al Franken has “unexpectedly picked up 37 votes due to a combined machine malfunction and human error on Election Day.” Today, Franken’s counsel Marc Elias said Franken is now up 22 votes, with “approximately 138,000 ballots left to count.” “This would be the first time that Franken has claimed a lead in this drawn-out process,” notes TPM.

However the Franken campaign has also faced a setback, they are now voicing concern about missing ballots. Yesterday the Franken campaign put out a press release alleging that 133 ballots are missing from a single precinct -- which just so happens to be a solidly-Dem precinct right in Minneapolis -- and calling upon the city's elections director to keep the recount officially open until this matter is resolved.

The county's initial election returns showed that Franken had a lead of 495 votes over Coleman, a nearly two-to-one-lead in this single precinct (Ward 3, Precinct 1). If these missing ballots are not recovered, it is quite possible that Franken could sustain a net loss in the vote count that would be enough to undo the campaign's claim of a 22-vote lead from this morning. The Star Tribune has some more info on this -- including the key number that Franken stands to lose a net 46 votes if these apparently misplaced ballots are not recovered.

Minnesota: Still Up In the Air

The recount in Minnesota is still going, and it can still go either way. This is again proof that every vote matters. Today it was discovered that 171 ballots that were missed in the initial count were discovered today -- and Al Franken benefited to the tune of a not insignificant total of 37 votes:

The final day of recounting in Ramsey County in the U.S. Senate race kicked up controversy today when 171 uncounted ballots from Maplewood turned up. The
ballots apparently had been uncounted because of a ballot-counting-machine malfunction on Election Day.

Democrat Al Franken made a net gain of 37 votes from the ballots, as he got 91 of the total, to 54 for Republican Sen. Norm Coleman and 26 for other candidates, including Dean Barkley of the Independence Party.

At a press conference earlier today, Franken's lawyer Marc Elias said the margin, by their count, was down to 50 votes:

Minnesota Democrat Al Franken’s lead attorney said Tuesday that his count shows the comedian trailing Sen. Norm Coleman by just 50 votes with more than 200,000
left to be counted.

Attorney Marc Elias held his press conference in Washington just hours after elections officials found nearly 200 ballots that had not been counted on election night.

We won't know who won this race for awhile. It will come down to the ballots challenged during the recount process. As of last night, Coleman had challenged 3067 ballots while Franken had challenged 2876. The five-member canvassing board will review those challenges beginning December 16th. Franken's lawyer also said today that most of the challenges wouldn't hold:

“I’m here to tell you that the vast majority of these challenges are going to be thrown out,” Elias said. “We’re confident that we’re going to gain votes when the challenges are resolved.”

The 50-vote lead of which Franken's lawyer spoke did not include the 37 new votes. That would mean the margin is down to 13 votes. We may yet see Senator Al Franken.

Minnesota Senate Recount: Why all the challenged ballots?

Is the Coleman campaign challenging ballots because they're questionable, or simply to manipulate the official recount tallies?

As shown by Nate at FiveThirtyEight.com, Norm Coleman's campaign opened up a gap yesterday in the number of ballots challenged in the statewide recount. While Coleman's lawyers certainly have the right and responsibility to put a good public face on it, the numbers don't lie: if Coleman challenges as many or more ballots than Democratic opponent Al Franken does, regardless of the merits of those challenges, he can make a case in the media that the recount worked, Coleman won, and should be re-seated in the Senate come January. Such a press conference would no doubt be accompanied by a fourth declaration of victory before the results are actually known.

But a view from inside the recount operation shows just how the Coleman operation is working: not just challenging questionable ballots, but challenging ballots that are clearly Franken votes for the sake of challenging Franken votes, tamping down any possible gains Franken might make in the official tally.

Emerging accounts indicate that ballots with clear intent -- an X instead of a filled-in circle, with no other confusing marks, for example -- are being challenged by Coleman-affiliated observers. One account indicated that a Coleman observer challenged a clear Franken vote because apparently, "the dots were too big." In another case, a Coleman volunteer challenged a ballot and was told by the attorney on hand that it was a clear Franken vote, but if they wanted to challenge it "tit-for-tat", to go ahead.

Do these accounts amount to a Franken advantage despite the official margin remaining right around where it was before the recount? Possibly. Some of Franken's challenges have no doubt been frivolous as well. How many is the question. With thousands of ballots now being challenged, are Franken's challenges, say, worth 500 votes more than the run-up-the-numbers challenge system apparently in use by Team Coleman once the state canvassing board reviews them? 400 votes? 300? The accounts relayed by sources close to the recount process indicates that Franken's operation may be making more valid challenges, but in a race this tight, exactly how many more is the million-dollar question.

And for those who thought this campaign season would be over on November 5th, think again.

Franken to Ritchie: ‘Ballots have gone missing’

Al Franken's Senate campaign is asking Minnesota Secretary of State Mark Ritchie to instruct all counties to redouble their efforts to find missing ballots.

“There are votes in Minnesota that aren’t even being accounted for, much less being counted,” spokesman Andy Barr told reporters at a press conference at Franken headquarters in St. Paul this afternoon.

Franken’s recount attorney, Marc Elias, said the campaign had become aware of the problem in the last few days from reports in the press as well as from campaign workers in the field. “Ballots have gone missing,” Elias said, calling it “a serious matter that is very concerning.”

He named more than a half dozen instances — from St. Paul to Duluth, and Crystal to Apple Valley — where the recount has turned up discrepancies between the number of recorded votes and the number of ballots county officials have been able to produce. And besides the cases reported in the news media, Elias said, the campaign’s own information indicates “this problem may be even more widespread.”

“In an election this close we cannot let any lawful vote go uncounted, and neither can we allow ballots to simply go lost,” Elias said.

Elias said the campaign’s letter to Ritchie would ask him to “launch an investigation to identify any and all missing ballots, and to immediately instruct local elected officials to redouble their efforts to find all missing ballots.”

As for the recount itself, Elias said the Franken campaign’s internal numbers, based on the judgment of the recount officials rather than challengers from either campaign, indicate that “the margin remains in double digits. In fact, it has narrowed since Friday.” He said that included ballots recounted on Saturday but not today. Official figures as of Saturday night had Coleman ahead by 167 votes with two-thirds of ballots recounted.

You can watch the video here:

LibertyAir Blog

Franken's deficit: 236 votes

Al Franken's deficit is down to 236 votes. Norm Coleman’s razor-thin lead over Al Franken keeps getting tighter, and Minnesota still has not started.

Yesterday, Coleman’s lead started at 477 votes, but as of 10:45 a.m. Thursday, it was a 438-vote gap, then at 4:15 pm it jumped up to a 590-vote lead, but then the margin again started to shrink and was back to 336 by 5 pm. Then at 8:45 pm, Al Franken found himself trailing by only 236 votes. One reason why the race has continued to tighten is that Election officials in Buhl, Minn., reportedly went to bed on election night without reporting the tallies for its 550 voters to county officials. Also reporting of results in Duluth was delayed because one precinct, “inundated with hundreds of same-day registrations,” took longer to count.

Secretary of State Mark Ritchie said the Senate vote totals will continue to move as county election officials double check their work. He said the numbers will continue to fluctuate until the County Canvassing Boards certify the election. The deadline for the county boards to certify the numbers is Monday, November 10th. The counties are required to submit their election reports by November 14th to the Minnesota Secretary of State.

The State Canvassing Board will then meet on Tuesday, November 18th to certify the election. At that point, the board will order a recount which is required by state law.