Republicans May Have Lost On Auto Bailout

The White House is moving forward with a rescue plan for the automakers. Congressional Republicans are not happy about it. What was first declared a tactical victory for the GOP leadership by the likes of MSNBC's First Read, is now looking like a loss. Because Senate Republicans failed to reach a deal with Democrats and their union allies, it now looks like they will get none of the conditions they were pushing for. In a post from the New Republic, Jonathan Chait notes that the White House is poised to bailout the automakers anyway, suggesting that the "GOP maneuver will have been a total disaster" for the party. If the White House uses the TARP funds its doubtful that the carmakers will be required to accept all of the restructuring conditions the Republicans were pushing for Thursday. This is because if the White House does use TARP funds the Republicans will have lost most of their leverage. Right now they have 49 Senate, in January they will have at most 42 seats, maybe only 41, their ability to block a closure vote. When that happens the Democrats will cut a much better deal for themselves, for the union, and for the auto companies. There will be more protections for the workers and there will be tougher environmental standards. Thus Mitch McConnell who was pretty much being hailed as a genius as a leader of the opposition, will have won nothing.

Republicans had a chance to make this bill as appealing as possible, but they didn't want want to concede anything. They didn't want to concede anything on environmental standards. They didn't want to concede anything on worker rights. They wouldn't negotiate in good faith.

Republican Strategy

Remember when Senator Mitch McConnell opposed an open amendment process for legislation in the Senate? Remember when Republicans were in the majority and they thought the worst word in the English language was "filibuster"? Remember when Mitch McConnell and every Republican would go on the cable news shows and threaten the nuclear option if Democrats tried to work within the rules and put their stamp on legislation, or block hardcore conservative judges. Remember how George W. Bush used to believe "up or down vote" were the four most important words in the English language?

Its pretty hard to remember, isn't it? Considering the record of the Republicans the last two years when they as the minority party, with 49 seats, filibustered more legislation than any Senate minority in congressional history.

Now Senator McConnell, the highest ranking Republican in the Senate speculated about another two years of filibusters.

A feisty Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) warned Friday that while he looks forward to working with President-elect Barack Obama in the coming months, Republicans will continue to demand that they be given the ability to amend legislation or will filibuster bills as they move through the Senate.

McConnell released a letter signed by the entire GOP Conference to Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) calling on him to use a more open process for advancing legislation in the 111th, a clear warning to Reid that Republicans will be looking to stand together over the next two years.

"The 42 Republican Senators represent 157 million Americans. Their voices are entitled to be heard, and the way to be heard in the Senate is an open amendment
process," a clearly rejuvenated McConnell told reporters.

The thing is I don't think Senator McConnell has thought through this threat. There are a few things working against him.

First, Democrats will have at least 58, probably 59 Senators in their caucus. While I hated not punishing Lieberman, the way Obama handled it, he has effectively neutered Lieberman, there will be no crossing the line by him anymore. I know a lot of people think that Lieberman will feel free to cross the line, but a President Obama and his Chief of Staff Rahm Emanual will know how to smack him down.

Second McConnell will not be able to keep Republicans in line, like they were for the last 8 years. Senators like Luger, Specter, Collins, and Snow will be convinced to cross the ailes often, and on specific issues like SChip particular Senators like Hatch will cross the line. There is no central leader in the Republican party, and the in-fighting will ensure there is no united minority.

Third, and most important the Republican's no longer have the bully pulpit. President Obama will have the biggest bullhorn, which will drown out McConnell, and a debate between President Obama and Senator McConnell is a no brainer.

Last, McConnel completely screwed up by making the threat. You don't bluster if you have the power, you stay quiet, and use your power when needed. Now he just looks like an obstructionist.

So you go McConnell, make your threats, keep proving what a pathetic politician you are.